Senior payments experts at the European Central Bank have billed the SEC's approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) for bitcoin as an example of the 'naked emperors new clothes', legitimising a currency whose fair value as an asset is effectively zero.
In a blog post published by the European Central Bank, Ulrich Bindseil, director general of market infrastructure and payments and Jürgen Schaaf, an advisor to the central bank, say that for bitcoin lobbyists the formal approval by the SEC confirms that Bitcoin investments are safe and the preceding rally is proof of an unstoppable triumph.
In the mid-2010s, the hope that bitcoin's value would inevitably rise to ever new heights began to dominate the narrative. But bitcoin is neither suitable as an investment or even as a real-world means of payments, the blog argues.
Bindseil and Schaff believe that lower interest rates and the SEC green light have opened the floodgates to Wall Street for bitcoin, promising large inflows of funds, "the only effective fuel in a speculative bubble".
"While in the short run the inflowing money can have a large impact on prices irrespective of fundamentals, prices will eventually return to their fundamental values in the long run," states the post. "And without any cash flow or other returns, the fair value of an asset is zero. Detached from economic fundamentals every price is equally (im)plausible - a fantastic condition for snake oil salesmen."
In a previous blog post in November last year, Bindseil and Schaaf, urged lawmakers to shy away from regulatory measures, pointing out that big bitcoin investors have the strongest incentives to keep the euphoria going and have hired armies of lobbyists to push their case with lawmakers and regulators.
In their latest post on the issue, the authors state: "While the current rally is fuelled by temporary factors, there are three structural reasons that may explain its seeming resilience: the ongoing manipulation of the 'price' in an unregulated market without oversight and without fair value, the growing demand for the 'currency of crime', and shortcomings in the authorities’ judgments and measures."
They argue that both the SEC's approval of bitcoin ETFs and the EU's Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation, have only served to convince less informed outsiders that bitcoin is a sound and safe investment, without taking any effective steps to address Bitcoin's outsized energy consumption and the financing of terrorism and crimes like money laundering and ransomware.
In conclusion, they argue: "Bitcoin’s price level is not an indicator of its sustainability. There are no economic fundamental data, there is no fair value from which serious forecasts can be derived. There is no 'proof of price' in a speculative bubble. Instead, a reflation of the speculative bubble shows the effectiveness of the Bitcoin lobby. The 'market' capitalisation quantifies the overall social damage that will occur when the house of cards collapses."